We are witnessing a global pandemic due to COVID-19 which is very furiously impacting the global economy. India since mid of march 2020 is under complete lock-down and almost all major sectors contributing to the Indian economy is hugely impacted. We can say the Indian economy is going under a big recession even worse than that of 2008-09 and others. Somehow India survived the 2008-09 recession because of the parallel cash economy but this time situation is not in control of anyone neither government nor corporates. It is actually a helpless situation where we only want God to press the reboot button and get all of us out of this situation as soon as possible and keep all our near and dear ones safe and sound.
Almost all MSMEs and other big corporates are adversely affected since the lock-down was announced to combat and control the spread of COVID-19 cases in India. The government have classified the businesses as essential and non-essential services and only the former was allowed to operate while the latter was completely shut down. Approximately, 130 million Indians have already lost their jobs till April 2020, many have had pay cuts and many more are likely to lose their jobs in the coming months.
Industries that are highly impacted in this global pandemic are aviation & tourism, automobile, hospitality, NBFCs, consumer durables, and garment sector and these industries are likely to witness slowdown till the end of March 2021 and will definitely take more time to revive. Industries who are least affected are drugs and pharmaceutical firms, agri-commodities, FMCG, healthcare, digital business, and the insurance sector. Even when businesses will be allowed to operate after the lockdown, they will face a huge deficit in the supply of raw material (supply chain is badly affected in this crisis) and most importantly shortage of labor (due to flight of migrant labor) in reinitiating the business.
The biggest fear in the mind of all business owners in this lock-down is going to be the burden of repayment of existing loans, collection of payment from debtors, and paying the same to the creditor. This payment cycle will be adversely disrupted if anyone in this chain has its payment stuck. There is the fixed liability of salaries, EMI, interest on the limit, and other necessary operating costs even when there is hardly any source of income and no certainty as in when will the business get back on track. According to an expert study, 25-30% of the highly impacted businesses will die and will be declared bankrupt. Now the biggest challenge is to analyze the crisis and save the businesses from getting bankrupt.
The government of India pushed RBI to allow a moratorium on all existing loans till Aug 2020 for all borrowers. This decision was taken to safeguard all borrowers who might not be able to bear the burden of EMI or interest when their business is completely shut down during the pandemic. Now it is very important to help all businesses to get back on track as from sept onward there will challenge of getting repayment of existing loan regularised. Furthermore, the Government has announced 20 lakh crore packages, to help India get out of this corona crisis very soon and India to be seen as the best-emerging economy in the near future.
Every crisis comes with an opportunity, now we have all the time to rethink and rebuild our business with a positive frame of mind. We just need to get out of our fear zone and start evaluating and learning new technology which can actually help us to shape our better tomorrow. It has actually helped us analyze that we can be more productive working at home or with less workforce. This crisis has given us time to learn and add new skills to our living. We learned new hobbies and enjoyed a very memorable time with family which has been missing for most of us.
It is very well said by john green: “The darkest night produces the brightest star”. This ray of hope and positivity will help all of us to bounce back and achieve many milestones of success.
For details feel free to connect @9811621997